Anyway the first book is from the same author of 'The Black Swan', is 'Fooled by Randomness' and is about the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets and statistics (not so easy to understand sometimes because of his use of difficult words). The second book is 'Toekomstmakers' (translation: future thinking) and its about the art of thinking ahead, by making scenario's of what could happen in the future and how your company could play on it.
'The Black Swan' that I'm reading now is about the impact of the highly improbable. In other words the black swan is an extreme event, it's not because you only saw white swans in your life that their can not be a black swan. It goes about the problem of induction. At first I didn't really understand it, but Nassim really explains it very good. Induction is a way of reasoning, in which one makes a decision to generalize a particularly situation or happening. And that is what 'The Black Swan' goes about, generalize situations, happenings, idea's and so on, but it's not because you never saw it, or it never happened that it can not happen.... he looks again at statistics. Statistics gave you a probability that something can happen. It doesn't exclude it can not happen. For example if you go to the doctor for an examination if you would have cancer or not, if the test is negative, it doesn't mean that you don't have cancer, it just means that their is a probability that you don't have cancer. The doctor didn't find anything, but it doesn't mean that is 100 % sure that you don't have cancer.
While reading 'The Black Swan' I have the feeling I can reflect this to the previous book about future thinking. 'The Black Swan' handles about unexpected events in live, and that if you know that their could be unexpected events in live, in the market or wherever, you can 'plan' to it...you can make scenario's to handle these unexpected and extraordinary events in live, in that way you have an action plan or a strategy if these 'black swans' happen.
A more clearer description:
"A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11" ~ Amazone
To conclude: reading from time to time an interesting book, broadens my mind, perspective and view on the world. It also gives me idea's for the future, on personal or professional level.
Some links:
- More on 'The Black Swan' theory
- Review of 'The Black Swan'
- More on Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Nassim Nicholas Talebs Website
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